Oscar Kuikeu

Lecturer, Department of International Management of International Trade, Higher School of Economics and Commercial Studies, University of Douala, Cameroon.

DOI : https://doi.org/10.58806/ijsshmr.2026.v5i8n07

Google Scholar Download Pdf
ABSTRACT

The literature in general assumes two channels of exports. In the one hand, the New Export channel with the Domestic Demand as the main driven force of Exports. In the other hand, the Old Export channel with the conventional Real Exchange Rate. The recent contribution on international trade reveals the difficulty to identify the determinants of international trade with the classical channel of exports dynamics. In fact, the parameters estimate of the exports dynamics equation, as well as with the latest econometric techniques as the ARDL Modelling than the conventional one as the Single Equation Approach, reveals that sometimes the parameters estimates are with the wrong sign while significant. Then the aim of this paper is to overcome this issue with the use of an relevant framework able to identify the determinants of international trade. To done this we employ the Granger causality test for heterogenous panel data Models. Globally Speaking, according to the Results in accordance to the standard theoretical framework coming from the Old and the New Export channel the domestic demand as well as the Real Exchange Rate are determinants of international trade. Once more there is a Reverse causation from exports dynamics to domestic demand.

KEYWORDS:

Exports, Real Exchange Rate, Domestic Demand, Causality tests, Panel

REFERENCES
1) Abdulnasser Hatemi, J. 2020 Asymmetric Panel Causality Tests with an Application to the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Performance in Scandinavia. Economia Internazionale/International Economics, 733, pp. 389-404.

2) Belke, A., Oeking, A. & Setzer, R. 2014 Exports and Capacity Constraints : A Smooth Transition Regression Model for six Euro Area countries. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 1740.

3) Belke, A., Oeking, A. & Setzer, R. 2013 Exports and Capacity Constraints : A Smooth Transition Regression Model for six Euro Area countries. Conference European Economics and Finance Society 2013, Berlin.

4) Berman, N., Berthou, A. & Héricourt, J. 2011 Export Dynamics and Sales at Home. CEPR Working Paper 8684.

5) Bikai, J. L. & Afomongono, G. F. 2017 Commerce et synchronisation des cycles dans les pays de la CEMAC. BEAC Working Paper 05/17.

6) Bobeica, E., Esteves, P. S., Rua, A. & Staehr, K. 2015 Exports and domestic demand pressures: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 1777.

7) Couharde, C., Delatte, A-L., Grekou, C., Mignon, V. and Morvillier, F. 2018 Eqchange: a world database on actual and equilibruim effective exchanges rates. International Economics, 156December 2018, pp. 206-230.

8) Dumitrescu, E.-I. and Hurlin, C. 2012 Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29 4, pp. 1450-1460.

9) Esteves, P. S. and Prades, E. 2016 On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 1909.

10) Esteves, P. S. and Rua, A. 2013 Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export peformance ?. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 1594.

11) Fontagne, L., Frudenberg, M. and Peridy, N. 1998 Commerce international et structures de marché: une vérification empirique. Économie & prévision, 1354, pp. 147-167.

12) Hodrick, R. and Prescott, E. C. 1997. Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 284, pp. 1-16.

13) Kuikeu, O. 2026a Domestic Demand and Export Performance in Gabon: A Single Equation Approach. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 321, pp. 117-130. https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2026/v32i11389.

14) Kuikeu, O. 2026b Assessing the Relationship between Domestic Demand and Export Performance in Gabon : An ARDL Modelling. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 323, pp. 49-58. https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2026/v32i31402.

15) Kuikeu, O. 2026c Long Run Relationship in Export Equation. Econstor 338230, ZBW-Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, Kiel, Hamburg.

16) Kuikeu, O. 2026d Assessing the Asymmetric Relationship between Domestic Demand and Export Performance in Gabon: NARDL Modelling. Journal of Economics, Mangement and Trade, 324, pp. 141-151. https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2026/v32i41417

17) Kuikeu, O. 2026e Domestic Demand and Export Performance in CEMAC: ARDL vs Single Equation Approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, 0904, pp. 1933-1940. https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v9-i4-23.

18) Kuikeu, O. 2026f Impact of a Major Event on Export Dynamics in CEMAC: Application of Panel Cointegration Test with Break. International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 57, pp. 47-53.

19) Kuikeu, O. 2025a Domestic Demand and Export Performance in Gabon: The issue of cointegration. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 13, pp. 15-28. https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.v13p2.

20) Kuikeu, O. 2025b Domestic Demand and Export Performance in CEMAC: Investigating from the Point of View of Capacity Constraints. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 13, pp. 43-50. https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.vol13p4.

21) Kuikeu, O. 2025c Domestic Demand and Export Performance in CEMAC: The Reverse Causation. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 13, pp. 79-86, https://doi.org/ 10.15640/jeds.v13p7.

22) Kuikeu, O. 2025d Domestic Demand and Export Performance in CEMAC: Complementary or Substituables ?. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 13, pp. 87-95. https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.vol13p9.

23) Wood A. and Mayer J. 2001 Africas export structure in a comparative perspective, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 253, pp. 369-394.

Cite this Article: Kuikeu, O. (2026). Determinants of International Trade in CEMAC: Granger causality test for heterogenous Panel. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE HUMANITY & MANAGEMENT RESEARCHS, 5(8), 2149-2158. https://doi.org/10.58806/ijsshmr.2026.v5i8n07

VOLUME 05 ISSUE 08 AUGUST 2026